Posts Tagged ‘Coming’

Keep Those California Dreams Coming

Monday, August 16th, 2010

Keep Those California Dreams Coming

We keep hearing about dropping house prices, and of course we know it is true. But the fact is that prices in California have dropped so much that you should consider grabbing up a bargain for yourself.

Recent reports have shown continuing increases in foreclosed houses and several western states are among the top ten states for foreclosure filing. These include Nevada, Arizona and California, with southern California showing an overall majority in that state.

It is unfortunate for the rest of the housing community that you do not need to go into foreclosure to have the value of your property decreased. In fact, as the Governor of California said, “…foreclosures don’t just hurt homeowners, they have an effect on all Californians through the economy and our state budget.”

California has been affected more than any other state by the sub-prime mortgage crisis. When easy credit became available many people took a chance on following their Californian dream and large numbers of homes changed hands at the height of the real estate bubble.

The bubble ended about a year ago, when prices peaked. At that time, the median price paid for a house was 4,000. According to an online data company that has been tracking local conditions, the same house would have declined to 2,000 by the end of 2007 and is still going down.

Their latest figures show that the median price for a home in January 2008 was 3,000; this same home would have been sold for 2,000 in January 2007.

Equity losses have varied according to specific areas, but a 20% loss on a house price in the last year is not an outrageous figure and in some areas it is worse. Sales have reached record lows for the state, which is hardly surprising, given the realty climate. Who would willingly put their home on the market, knowing that the sale of it will represent a loss?

Almost across the board in California from Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego etc., the number of houses sold in February 2008 is roughly half the number that were sold in February 2007.

Houses are still for sale though; some people simply have to move and other people who have had their homes a long time will not record a loss. This is because whilst home prices have dropped, they have not gone lower than the 2003/2004 price ranges – as yet. Many people bought before then and therefore they still have equity profits in their homes.

Larger homes are now more difficult to buy, because the financing of so-called ‘jumbo’ mortgages has become more expensive and more elusive. Bargains to be had are more concentrated in the inland markets and in the newer suburbs.

A condo may represent a good investment at this time, as many people will also be looking to rent if they have just come through a terrible foreclosure ordeal. With a renter paying down your condo mortgage, you would be able to stay put in your own home.

If you have always dreamed of California, then maybe you can one of the lucky ones who will now be able to afford a home in this sought after state.

Joshua Sloan is an experienced San Diego real estate agent. Visit his site at SanDiegoRealEstateBuzz.com for help with finding new San Diego County homes for sale or visit the 4S Ranch real estate page to browse homes for sale.

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Is Real Estate Coming Back Now?

Friday, July 30th, 2010

Is Real Estate Coming Back Now?

A mere glance at the leading financial papers in America would have you believe that real estate has bottomed, and is already on the ascent again. If you were to listen to the commentators or talking heads, they want you to believe that housing prices have bottomed, and are working their way up again. The evidence they would give is the dramatic increase in sales activity that the statistics are showing. Let’s look at some vital statistics that will better inform real estate investors as to what reality really is.

The National Association of Realtors reported in August of 2009 the following statement, Existing home sales rose in July for the fourth consecutive month”. They were up about 2.2% from June, the preceding month, and the numbers as expected, are adjusted for seasonal purposes. It seems outright bullish on the face of it, and that’s what the media wants you to believe. We say, not so fast. In our opinion, they are completely misleading the public. It’s intentional we think because they are biased.

The real estate industry has a trade publication which is called “Inside Mortgage Finance”. We looked at the latest survey done for the professional real estate industry and this surprisingly is what we found. Now remember the talking heads on television never study this kind of material. The results of the survey were plain to see, but were written in such a way as to inform the professional real estate player and at the same time mislead casual reader. The publication pointed out that 36% of all sales involved what they referred to as “non-distressed” properties. That’s more than one out of every three properties that were sold.

What does it really mean when you get right down to it? You have to reverse the numbers to get at the real meaning. It means that 64% or almost two thirds of all real estate sales involve DISTRESSED PROPERTY SALES. Think about it, if 36% is non-distressed, than 64% must be distressed. They are trying to play with our brains to mislead us. This also means a huge number of real estate sales taking place in this country are buyers looking and acting only on properties that are in financial distress, plain and simple. This is not a bull market in real estate under any conditions that we can see.

There are more peculiarities evident. In a different section of the article, we discovered something else that was also misleading. Let’s look at only the non-distressed sales for a moment which compose 36% of all real estate sales according to the survey. Non-distressed to us means exactly that, non-distressed, or voluntary. The article reveals that when dealing with so called “non-distressed properties”, only 31% of them involved were “unforced or optional”.

The implications are clear to us that 69% of the sales which were termed non-distressed property sales were “FORCED” for reasons not disclosed. A less than brilliant person could figure this one out. The conclusion is obvious. When you come right down to it, perhaps about 10% of the sales involving real estate in this country for the last several months was part of the normal sales process. That’s only one out of every ten house sales. The rest were the results of one of three things, foreclosures, and banks taking losses, or forced sales by the seller.

Real estate remains in the doldrums in this country and around the world. The problems were caused by the banks during the 2008 financial panic. It will be in our opinion several years before we can get back to a vibrant real estate market.

For an expanded version of this article and other interesting articles Click Here. Richard Stoyeck’s background includes being a limited partner at Bear Stearns, Senior VP at Lehman Brothers, Arthur Andersen, and KPMG. Educated at Pace University, NYU, & Harvard University, today he runs Rockefeller Capital Partners & StocksAtBottom.com

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